Relationship between Rainfall Variability and Millet (Pennisetum americanum L.) and Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L) moench.) Yields in the Sudan Savanna Ecological Zone of Nigeria: A Modelling Approach
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between rainfall variability parameters and millet (Pennisetum americanum L.) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L) moench.) yields in Nigeria’s Sudan Savanna ecological zone. Daily rainfall, millet, and sorghum yield data collected by nearby stations between 1981 and 2010 were used as input in the model. It aims to create a model that can predict millet and sorghum yields based on rainfall data. The following analytical tools were used to develop and test the model’s performance: ogive of cumulative pentad rainfall, product – Stepwise multiple regression analysis, moment correlation coefficient (r), and coefficient of determination (R2). Four yield forecast models were developed as a result of the research: three for millet in Kano, Katsina, and Potiskum, and one for sorghum in Potiskum. Assuming the best-fitted yield forecast models, the model accounted for 61.7 percent of the variation in millet yield related to total yearly rainfall and 68.1 percent of the variation in sorghum yield related to total rainfall in May. The 38.3 percent unaccounted variation in millet yield and 31.9 percent variation in sorghum yield suggest that other factors may influence the yield variability of the two crops.
Author (s) Details
Dr. Haruna Saleh
Department of Geography, Umaru Musa Yar`adua University, Katsina State, Nigeria.
Dr. Tasi’u Yalwa Rilwanu
Department of Geography, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria.
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